Kerry by pretty much a landslide. The pollsters are too afraid to risk being wrong to essay the real phenomena being expressed. You have to see past the numbers and be intuitive.

There are a lot of Republicans that can't admit publicly the truth about how they are going to vote. Bush even scares a lot of them, such that when they do answer polls they say they are going to vote for Bush, but when push comes to shove inside that private booth, they are going to go for sanity.

The pollsters also can't track very well what the newly registered are going to do, which is why the Republican powers are trying so hard to intimidate voters at the polling sites. They know the great majority of these new voters are coming out to vote against Bush, and their problem is this is a tidal wave they really can't stop.

We should also note that during the Primaries last winter and spring, the pollsters missed both the level of turnout, and the way the vote would go. This election is too powerful a representation of American's true heart, and the number crunchers can't get their quantitative science into this qualitative soul-space. You have to listen to the voices with your heart, not your head.

I also expect the Democrats to take back the Senate, but not the House. If they do the next two years right (form a coalition with the forgotten Left) instead of trying to hold only the Center, they'll be able to get the House back then. As well the Left has to move toward the Center, and force its way back into the Democratic Party. But that's all a story for another day.